4-9-2023 (JAKARTA) Southeast Asian leaders, led by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, are convening for their final summit of the year, facing a host of divisive issues with no apparent resolutions in sight. The key concerns on the agenda include Myanmar’s ongoing civil conflict, renewed tensions in the disputed South China Sea, and the enduring rivalry between the United States and China.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings kick off on Tuesday in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, amidst stringent security measures. The notable absence of U.S. President Joe Biden, a regular attendee at these summits, further underscores the somber atmosphere surrounding the 10-member bloc’s traditional display of unity and collective handshakes.
After initial discussions on Tuesday, ASEAN’s heads of state will convene with their Asian and Western counterparts from Wednesday to Thursday, providing a broader platform for discussions. This platform has been used by the United States, China, and their allies for extensive talks on free trade, climate change, and global security, turning it into a battleground for their rivalries.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to participate in these meetings, including the 18-member East Asia Summit. During this gathering, he will meet with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is representing President Biden, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
While President Biden is skipping the ASEAN summit, he will travel to Asia for the G-20 summit in India and then visit Vietnam to strengthen ties. The U.S. government emphasizes that this decision does not signify a downgrading of the region’s importance in its geopolitical priorities. John Kirby, a national security spokesperson, stated in a news briefing in Washington, “It’s hard to look at what we’ve done as an administration, since the very beginning, and come away with a conclusion that we are somehow not interested in the Indo-Pacific or that we are deprioritizing the Southeast Asia nations and those relationships.”
In November, President Biden attended the ASEAN summit meetings in Cambodia, and in May 2022, he hosted eight leaders from the bloc at the White House, demonstrating his administration’s commitment to the region, even amidst challenges like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Biden administration has also been strengthening security alliances in the Indo-Pacific, including Southeast Asia, which has raised concerns in China.
Marty Natalegawa, a respected former foreign minister of Indonesia, expressed disappointment over Biden’s absence but pointed out that the more significant concern is ASEAN’s diminishing relevance. He stated in an interview with The Associated Press, “The absence of the U.S. president, while it is disappointing and symbolically significant, is for me the least of the worry because what’s more worrisome actually is the more fundamental structural tendency for ASEAN to become less and less prominent.”
Founded in 1967 during the Cold War era, ASEAN adheres to the principle of non-interference in each member state’s domestic affairs and operates based on consensus, meaning that even one member can veto any unfavorable decision or proposal. While these foundational principles have led to a diverse membership, including nascent democracies and conservative monarchies, they have also hindered the bloc from taking punitive actions against state-sanctioned atrocities.
The ASEAN member states currently include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Natalegawa emphasized that ASEAN’s inability to effectively restrain Myanmar’s military government from committing human rights violations and its silence when a Chinese coast guard ship recently used a water cannon to block a Philippine supply boat in the South China Sea raise questions about the group’s ambition to be at the center of Asian diplomacy. He noted that member states have turned to either the U.S. or China for security.
“Absenteeism by ASEAN is leading to unmet needs, and those needs are being met elsewhere,” he warned.
The ongoing civil conflict in Myanmar, which has persisted for over two years after the military ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, and disputes in the South China Sea are once again expected to dominate the agenda at the Jakarta summit, despite Indonesia’s efforts to shift the focus towards enhancing regional economies under the theme “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth.” However, geopolitical and security concerns continue to overshadow these aspirations and lead to diplomatic tensions.
The European Union has cautioned that its relations with ASEAN could be affected if it has to deal with Myanmar in a leadership role. Following this warning, Myanmar’s military-led government, which is not recognized by ASEAN but remains a member, indicated that it might not be able to chair the regional bloc as scheduled in 2026, according to two Southeast Asian diplomats speaking to the AP on the condition of anonymity.
The diplomats noted that ASEAN leaders would have to decide in Jakarta whether to ask the Philippines to replace Myanmar as the host for that year. Myanmar may also be unable to assume a three-year role starting next year as the coordinator of ASEAN-EU relations, according to the same diplomats.
Myanmar’s generals and their appointees have been barred from attending ASEAN’s leaders and foreign ministerial meetings, including this week’s summit, due to the military government’s failure to fully comply with a five-point peace plan calling for an immediate end to violence and the initiation of dialogue between contending parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi and other officials who have been detained since the coup.
Since the military takeover in Myanmar, about 4,000 people have been killed, and more than 24,400 people have been arrested, according to the advocacy group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.
To address such crises more effectively and prevent them from escalating into deadly disasters, ASEAN member states have discussed proposed rules that would allow the group to make decisions even in the absence of consensus from all member states, according to one of the diplomats.
Dinna Prapto Raharja, an analyst and professor in international relations based in Jakarta, emphasized that ASEAN’s credibility is at stake if the Myanmar crisis persists. While the bloc lacks a conflict-resolution mechanism for such domestic crises, it should be adaptable enough to use its influence and connections to help resolve these issues. She remarked, “ASEAN continues to say that it’s so difficult, it’s so complex. But, as time goes by, all these opportunities simply evaporate.”
