30-5-2023 The ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC) has predicted that the southern ASEAN countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, and southern Thailand, will experience prolonged hot and dry weather from June to October, with an increased risk of transboundary haze and wildfires.
Based in Singapore, the ASMC serves as the regional center for ASEAN, assessing and monitoring forest fires and haze within the region, and providing early warning services for transboundary haze. In a statement released on Monday (29th), the center highlighted the potential occurrence of El Niño, a weather phenomenon, in the upcoming months, which may lead to more severe transboundary haze and intensified hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region between June and October, compared to the past three years.
In the past three years, the presence of La Niña, the “sister” of El Niño, slightly lowered the global average temperature, resulting in a relatively wetter and cooler climate. However, El Niño is expected to hit Southeast Asia and Australia in the latter half of this year, bringing hotter and drier conditions.
According to The Straits Times in Singapore, the El Niño phenomenon in 2015 caused thick haze in Southeast Asia, with Singapore even having to close primary and secondary schools for a day in September that year. The effects persisted into 2016, making it the hottest year in Singapore’s history.
The previous El Niño cycle occurred in 2018 and 2019, and although its impact was less severe, it still brought transboundary haze, resulting in several weeks of unhealthy air quality in Singapore in 2019.
Furthermore, the ASMC noted that there have been signs of rising sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific since the beginning of this year, indicating the onset of the El Niño phenomenon in the coming months.
The center also highlighted another climate phenomenon known as the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is expected to cause an increase in sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean in the next one to two months.
“When El Niño coincides with the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole, it will bring even drier and hotter weather to the region,” the center stated.
As the region braces for prolonged heatwaves and increased haze risks, authorities and communities will need to remain vigilant and implement appropriate measures to mitigate the potential environmental and health impacts.
