14-11-2023 (JAKARTA) Amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is set to address the issue during the Asean Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) scheduled for this week in Jakarta. The ADMM-Plus session, which includes key dialogue partners like China, Japan, India, and the United States, is expected to explore challenges facing the region, with a focus on recent skirmishes between China and the Philippines.
The ongoing disputes involve accusations from Manila, stating that China is aggressively asserting its claims in the South China Sea, while China argues that the Philippines has violated its waters. A recent incident saw a Chinese coast guard ship using a water cannon against a Philippine motorboat delivering supplies to Filipino forces.
Dedi Dinarto from Global Counsel’s Singapore office anticipates the ADMM discussions will concentrate on defense cooperation, emphasizing the need to strengthen defense capacity through training and education. The session is expected to shift focus towards maritime security, highlighting a departure from the previous emphasis on Covid-19 recovery.
Dinarto emphasizes the importance of utilizing the meeting to convey Asean’s commitment to peace and security, urging both China and the US to refrain from actions that could trigger instability. The meeting’s significance prompts speculation about China’s representative, with Dinarto suggesting the possibility of sending Liu Zhenli, a military general, to maintain communication and dialogue with key Southeast Asian partners.
Despite differing positions among Asean members, Abdul Rahman Yaacob from the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia program stresses the importance of demonstrating Asean unity on the South China Sea issue. While expecting a diplomatic stance that avoids explicit criticism of China’s actions, Rahman hopes the meeting will express concerns and encourage all parties to exercise restraint.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s participation in the ADMM-Plus session reaffirms the US commitment in the Indo-Pacific region, dispelling concerns that conflicts in other regions might divert attention. The meeting coincides with joint military exercises between China and Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, focusing on anti-terrorism drills.
As tensions persist, the sidelines discussions and leadership turnovers in working groups during the ADMM might offer opportunities for incremental progress in defense cooperation issues. Meanwhile, the Philippines seeks military and diplomatic support beyond Asean, engaging with Australia and Japan to address maritime disputes with China.
During the ADMM-Plus meeting, South Korea’s Vice-Defense Minister Kim Seon-ho is expected to seek support in managing security concerns on the Korean Peninsula, particularly the threats posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs.
