1-8-2024 (MANILA) The once-formidable UniTeam alliance between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio appears to have disintegrated, reshaping the country’s political landscape. The rupture, which has been brewing for months, was thrust into the spotlight following recent events surrounding Marcos’s State of the Nation Address (SONA).
Political analysts now view the partnership between the Marcos and Duterte clans as irreparably fractured. “There is definitely no more UniTeam,” declared Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, in an interview with This Week in Asia. She added that both leaders “can no longer diplomatically state that it is business as usual”.
The absence of Vice-President Duterte-Carpio at the SONA on 22 July was seen as a clear indication of the alliance’s collapse. Jan Robert Go, associate professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, remarked, “The SONA was a clear indicator that the Dutertes and their solid supporters have departed the coalition.”
In the aftermath of the SONA, a series of events has further strained relations between the two political powerhouses. A controversial video, dismissed by authorities as a “malicious” deepfake, purportedly showing Marcos using drugs, was circulated by Duterte supporters. While not directly linked to the former president’s family, analysts suggest it aligns with “the Duterte play book of attacking critics”.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Philippine National Police (PNP) recalled 75 officers from Vice-President Duterte-Carpio’s security detail, a move she decried as “political harassment”. The vice-president’s subsequent departure for Germany during a severe typhoon further stoked controversy.
The Marcos administration appears to be recalibrating its stance on key issues. Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra’s recent statement suggesting the government would not impede the International Criminal Court’s investigation into the Duterte administration’s war on drugs marks a significant shift from previous positions.
As public approval ratings for Marcos decline, observers note that the administration is likely to focus on popular policies, including confronting Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea and banning Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (Pogos). Political analyst Atienza emphasised, “The president needs to fulfil his promises and pronouncements. At the same time, he and his administration need to have substantial impact on areas that are closer to Filipinos, such as poverty, hunger, inflation, and jobs.”
The Duterte clan, meanwhile, seems to be consolidating its forces for a potential political comeback in the 2025 elections. Duterte-Carpio has announced her father and brothers’ intentions to run for Senate seats, though doubts persist about their actual plans.
Go cautioned that the Duterte family must tread carefully, noting, “There is what we call political fatigue that may affect the electorate when this becomes their norm, or when everyone in the family decides to run. There is no charisma that does not fade. There is no popularity that does not wane.”
