31-7-2024 (YANGON) The Arakan Army (AA), a formidable ethnic armed group, is leveraging the monsoon season to amplify its offensive against the military regime in Rakhine state. This western coastal region, bordering Bangladesh, has become a crucible of intensifying warfare as the AA seeks to consolidate its control.
The AA’s media team, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed to Nikkei Asia that their strategy blends guerrilla tactics with conventional military operations. “We are mainly deploying insurgent tactics, in combination with some characteristics of conventional warfare,” they stated. This hybrid approach has enabled the group to target long-established military outposts, border camps, and fortified operational commands crucial to the regime’s authority.
Recent victories underscore the effectiveness of the AA’s tactics. The group has successfully gained control of Nagpali, a popular beach area in Rakhine state known for its military-owned villas and resorts, and captured the headquarters of an infantry battalion. These successes are part of a broader campaign to achieve complete control over Rakhine state.
The AA has strategically incorporated the monsoon weather into its battle plans. “We prepared to better use the changing weather during the monsoon,” the AA spokesperson explained, noting that while the rains present challenges, they also provide tactical advantages against enemy drone strikes and troop movements.
David Scott Mathieson, an independent analyst with extensive knowledge of Myanmar’s ethnic armed forces, describes this year’s monsoon battles as an escalation from previous years. “This round of fighting since November last year is really a ‘cold’ season, then summer, and now monsoon multiseasonal offensive,” he observed. “It is the most intensive since the AA was formed.”
The AA claims a force of around 40,000 standing troops, potentially making it the largest de-facto state-armed organisation in Myanmar. While some Southeast Asian military intelligence operatives question these numbers, they acknowledge the group’s significant impact on the ground.
Among the AA’s most notable achievements is the capture of two out of three Military Operations Commands (MOCs) in Rakhine state. These division-sized strategic bases are crucial to the Myanmar military’s operations in the region. The AA is currently engaged with the third MOC, demonstrating its growing military prowess.
The conflict has taken a heavy toll on civilians. The Assistance Association of Political Prisoners reports that 5,161 civilians have been killed since the military coup in 2021. The United Nations has raised alarms about the displacement of over 3 million people due to the ongoing conflict.
Despite the Myanmar regime’s efforts to reinforce its positions with hastily trained conscripts, the AA remains resolute in its objectives. “It is true that the SAC has been reinforcing more troops and military ammunition these days,” the AA spokesperson acknowledged, referring to the State Administrative Council, the official name of the military regime. However, they affirmed that their progress aligns with their ultimate goal “to eradicate all SAC forces across Arakan.”
