28-6-2024 (MANILA) The Philippines appears to be recalibrating its response to the South China Sea dispute following its latest clash with China, as observers note a more aggressive stance from the country’s defense chief compared to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration.
Analysts warn that Manila must demonstrate unity between its defense and political leadership to effectively counter Beijing’s assertiveness in the contested waters.
These observations come after National Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. rejected a plan to hold talks with Beijing, stressing that the clash at the Second Thomas Shoal was a violent and illegal move by China.
Teodoro Jr. made his stance clear during a Senate inquiry on Tuesday when Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo provided an update on a mechanism for both countries to work out their differences in the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s name for those parts of the South China Sea that lie within its exclusive economic zone.
A Philippine working group recently met, in preparation for discussions under the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism with their Chinese counterparts next month, to find out whether both countries can agree on confidence-building measures “for a peaceful resolution through international law and diplomacy,” Manalo said.
The meetings are expected to focus on issues including the June 17 confrontation between the Philippine navy and the Chinese coastguard, in which several Filipinos were injured, including a sailor who lost a thumb. The Chinese coastguard also reportedly seized two lifeboats used for the resupply missions to a Philippine outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal.
During the inquiry, Teodoro Jr. said he opposed the plan shared by Manalo, as China typically used such talks to weaken Manila’s position.
When asked by Senator Imee Marcos, chair of the Senate’s committee on foreign relations, if it would be possible for Manila to follow the example of the United States to engage in talks with Beijing on the South China Sea dispute, Teodoro Jr. said he was not optimistic about holding such a discussion.
“No … because they [China] have not displayed a level of trust and confidence that would make me confident enough to engage them on a fair and level-playing-field basis,” Teodoro Jr. said.
According to Teodoro Jr., since he assumed his current role in June last year, the Philippine and Chinese militaries have yet to meet and discuss issues concerning the West Philippine Sea.
Teodoro Jr. also said an earlier statement by Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin that the June 17 incident was a misunderstanding was a “preliminary assessment.”
“The Philippines has to take a strong stance,” defense analyst Jose Antonio Custodio, a fellow of the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers, told This Week in Asia.
“After evaluating, they saw how aggressive the Chinese were. So they decided to push back,” he said of Teodoro Jr.’s comments.
Despite the defense chief’s dismissal of talks on the South China Sea row similar to US-China discussions, Custodio said Manila and Washington were “closely interacting,” and the US supply of F16 aircraft to the Philippines was going ahead as planned.
Security analyst Joshua Espeña, a resident fellow and vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, told This Week in Asia that the Philippine defense department was likely readjusting the country’s strategy in a “face-saving” move by talking tough.
“At the political level, Marcos may have said his piece about peaceful settlement but did not necessarily back down on military presence in the West Philippine Sea,” Espeña said. “However, the military is just a tool of the state, it may shape but not dictate foreign policy. Marcos is not out there now to talk bravado before the international community after the June 17 incident. So the Department of National Defence has been pitted in the middle.”
“It is … responding to the government’s adjustment to recalibrate a new grand strategy based on the new operational environment.”
The latest incident appeared to set the stage for further destabilization by China that could lead to a serious conflict, according to Custodio.
“By pushing for what is internationally seen as illegal claims in the entire South China Sea, China is the one at fault here if something happens,” Custodio said.
The Philippines would have learned from the lessons of the Scarborough Shoal crisis when it received US commitment towards defending Manila’s position in the South China Sea dispute, Espeña said. In 2012, China gained control of the shoal after a stand-off with the Philippines.
As a result of US concerns about wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Washington’s position on its defense treaty with the Philippines could be wavering, Espeña said.
“In this case, US confidence is decreasing but not necessarily lacking. If anything, this runs as an opportunity for Manila to get harder on diplomacy with the US on what it can and cannot commit as per the treaty.”
