1-5-2024 (YANGON) More than three years after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Myanmar’s military agreed on a five-point peace plan, the prospect of lasting peace appears increasingly distant as conflict escalates.
The five-point consensus, announced on April 24, 2021, in the aftermath of Myanmar’s military coup, aimed to halt violence immediately and initiate constructive dialogue. It also proposed a mediation process facilitated by an envoy, ASEAN humanitarian aid, and talks between the envoy and all Myanmar parties.
Recent ASEAN meetings reflected a renewed push for reconciliation. In January, a senior Myanmar official participated for the first time in three years, followed by Myanmar’s representation at an ASEAN defense ministers meeting in March, marking its return after two years.
The momentum towards reconciliation is partly attributed to the efforts of veteran Laotian diplomat Alounkeo Kittikhoun, who visited Myanmar for the first time in roughly 18 months in January.
While Myanmar officials have engaged in key ASEAN meetings, the country’s internal strife persists. Major anti-military factions, like the National Unity Government, remain committed to armed resistance.
Ethnic militant groups have intensified attacks on military outposts since October, prompting military retaliation with airstrikes and heavy artillery.
These factions have also resisted ASEAN’s humanitarian aid efforts, arguing that aid, distributed by the military government, should support civil society groups and ethnic minorities.
ASEAN’s ability to facilitate dialogue hinges on the credibility of member governments. Without internal unity in Myanmar, the implementation of the five-point consensus remains uncertain.
