18-4-2024 (MYAWADDY) The recent capture of Myawaddy, a critical trading post on Myanmar’s border with Thailand, by rebel forces has offered a glimpse into the shifting dynamics unfolding across the Southeast Asian nation. As the military junta reels from battlefield losses, the fall of this strategic town highlights the resilience and coordination of resistance groups determined to topple the ruling regime.
At the outskirts of Myawaddy, the scars of intense fighting are evident – abandoned homes sit alongside buildings pockmarked by bullet holes, gas stations damaged by blasts, and structures flattened by airstrikes. This was the scene that greeted Reuters reporters during their rare visit to the rebel-held territory earlier this week.
The rebels who fought against junta troops in Myawaddy paint a picture of a demoralised military force unwilling to hold its ground. “We managed to seize three bases and control the area in a very short period of time,” said Saw Kaw, a commander of a rebel unit involved in the battle. “Then, they fled.”
In a striking display of shifting allegiances, guards from ethnic militias once loyal to the military administration now roam the streets of Myawaddy – a town typically a conduit for over $1 billion of annual border trade with neighbouring Thailand. These fighters stood aside as forces led by the Karen National Union (KNU) laid siege to the town in early April.
The fall of Myawaddy means that Myanmar’s two most important land border crossings are now in the hands of the resistance, after rebels claimed control of Muse, near the Chinese border, last year. This development has effectively cut off the cash-strapped junta from almost all of the country’s major land borders, dealing a severe blow to its already faltering economy.
According to estimates by the Thailand-based Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP) think-tank, the junta has been deprived of 60 percent of its land-based customs revenue following the loss of Myawaddy. Analysts argue that this setback leaves the junta in its weakest position since the 2021 coup against Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government.
Neighbouring countries, previously focused on engaging with the junta, have started to rethink their stance on the conflict. Thai Vice Foreign Minister Sihask Phuangketkeow acknowledged that Thai security officials have been in communication with the KNU and other groups, expressing openness to further dialogue, particularly on humanitarian issues.
“We don’t blindly side with the Myanmar military, but because we want peace, we have to talk to them,” Phuangketkeow stated.
At the western edge of Myawaddy, Colonel Nadah Htoo, a senior commander of the KNU’s armed wing, one of Myanmar’s oldest ethnic fighting forces, is contemplating the next steps after leading the patchwork of resistance fighters that defeated the army in roughly a week. Surrounded by armed guards, Nadah Htoo described ongoing talks with other ethnic armed groups about fighting the junta locally.
For decades, Myanmar has been riven by insurgencies along its borderlands, where some two dozen ethnic armed groups operate. Many of them are now part of, or supporting, the resistance movement. Maintaining cooperation among these groups with varying interests over the course of a protracted war against a better-armed military remains a challenge, acknowledged Nadah Htoo and another resistance official.
“We have to constantly coordinate so there won’t be any mistake,” the colonel told Reuters, declining to be photographed or filmed until the operation ended, citing security concerns.
In Myawaddy, Reuters observed at least three armed groups coordinating to maintain control, reflecting the rare cooperation among rebel forces that share a common enemy in the junta but otherwise have different interests. Most of the rebels who took Myawaddy were ethnic Karen, though they fought alongside some ethnic Burman members of the national resistance, said rebel commander Saw Kaw.
“The first thing is that we don’t kill each other,” said KNU spokesman Saw Taw Nee, addressing tensions between his group and other ethnic Karen groups that were allied to the junta until this month. “And then we start from that.”
The capture of Myawaddy is part of a broader strategy by rebel groups to hit the military with successive offensives across multiple areas, following the success of Operation 1027 last October, when three rebel groups, including the powerful Arakan Army (AA), led a major offensive that saw the resistance take wide swathes of military-controlled areas along the border with China.
“After 1027, we saw the AA in Arakan starting to push. When the AA eased, then we decided to push,” said KNU’s Nadah Htoo, describing the coordinated efforts that have put the junta under immense pressure on multiple fronts.
“If you look back from the beginning of Operation 1027, the towns that the resistance forces seized have never been regained,” said Lalita Hanwong, an assistant professor at Thailand’s Kasetsart University, underscoring the significance of these rebel victories.
While the junta is keen to regain control of Myawaddy, a critical trading centre and its main gateway to Southeast Asia, analysts expect a fierce resistance. According to Nadah Htoo, some 200 junta troops remain trapped near a bridge between Myawaddy and Thailand, with the option to either surrender to the Thais or the KNU.
The colonel and Bangkok-based security analyst Anthony Davis anticipate the junta to attempt retaking Myawaddy in the coming weeks to hinder resistance access to an important nearby highway that cuts through the heart of Myanmar. However, some army reinforcements have already been repelled by the KNU en route to the town.
The stakes are high for both sides. Control of territory near the borders can be lucrative, with the UN and the British government accusing senior leaders of the Karen National Army (KNA) of using territory near Myawaddy to run scam centres and illegal casinos.
As losses mount near Myanmar’s frontiers, the army is increasingly being pushed into the Buddhist-dominated heartland, once a fertile recruiting ground for the military. The junta is now ensnared in a low-intensity conflict with hundreds of militia groups known as People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), many of whom are aligned with the KNU and a shadow administration that includes members of the deposed civilian government.
While the junta remains a formidable opponent likely to retain control over government and the heartland, military setbacks closer to central Myanmar could cut off its access to key transport arteries and deal a major psychological blow to its already dwindling army, accelerating its potential retreat or collapse, according to Davis.
Regardless of the outcome, KNU officials, rebel fighters, and analysts foresee more violence and no easy victory, even as the resistance pushes to coordinate operations and retain momentum. As Saw Taw Nee aptly stated, “In our country, there are so many groups and so many differences. We will take time, and we will be united.”
