8-2-2024 (ISLAMABAD) As Pakistan gears up for its upcoming National Assembly elections on Thursday (Feb 8), the country finds itself caught in a familiar pattern of political turmoil. The previous elections in 2018 were marred by controversy, with the military’s alleged interference to favor former cricket star Imran Khan, who went on to become the prime minister. His main rival, three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, was ousted from office and imprisoned on corruption charges.
Fast forward to the present, and the tables have turned. Imran Khan, now a former prime minister, was removed from power in 2022 and sent to jail over allegations of graft. Despite facing multiple criminal charges, Khan’s supporters believe that his political opponents, the judiciary, and the military are conspiring to keep him out of office. They fail to acknowledge that it was the same judiciary and military that propelled him to power in the first place, two decades after his initial foray into politics marked by anti-American sentiment and electoral setbacks.
Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif, whose brother Shehbaz briefly served as prime minister before the caretaker government took over, is eyeing a fourth term in government. However, if the military is indeed backing him, it would be a triumph of hope over experience, as Sharif’s previous tenures as prime minister were cut short by military intervention, including a coup d’état.
The military should have learned by now that attempting to remove a Pakistani leader from the political process only enhances their popularity. In fact, Khan’s imprisonment has fueled his image as a martyr, further boosting his popularity among his supporters. Sharif, on the other hand, has centered his campaign on the economy, blaming Khan for mismanagement that has brought the country to the brink of crisis.
While it is true that Sharif’s tenure was plagued by disasters such as an unsustainable current-account deficit and devastating floods, the current government, albeit without Khan at the helm, has managed to maintain the confidence of international creditors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, inflation remains high, hovering between 20% and 30%, and the deficit has not been eliminated. The real challenge lies in implementing crucial economic reforms to raise the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which currently stands at a meager 10%, insufficient to fund essential services.
According to the World Bank, bold reforms could generate an additional 12% of GDP, providing the fiscal space necessary to invest in human capital and infrastructure, bolstering Pakistan’s competitiveness and ability to pay for energy imports. Implementing such reforms is conceptually straightforward but politically challenging. Investors are concerned that the legitimacy of the winning party in the upcoming elections may be questioned, whether it is Sharif’s party or a coalition led by Khan’s supporters.
Regardless of the election outcome, Pakistan cannot afford to let political squabbles hinder essential economic reforms. The winners and losers must find common ground and agree on a minimum reform program that can be spearheaded by a non-partisan finance minister. Failing to do so will only hinder Pakistan’s economic prospects, leaving the country in a precarious position.
