15-12-2023 (YANGON) In a clandestine meeting near the Sino-Myanmar border in June, high-ranking officials from Myanmar’s junta engaged in peace talks with representatives of three formidable ethnic armies. Seated across a broad table adorned with elaborate bouquets, the junta believed they were on the path to resolution. Little did they know, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of powerful ethnic armies, was already orchestrating Operation 1027—a strategic offensive that unfolded in October, emerging as the most significant threat to the regime since its 2021 coup.
“We were already preparing for the operation when we met them,” revealed Kyaw Naing, spokesperson for the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a predominantly ethnic-Chinese group within the rebel coalition. In an exclusive interview, Reuters gathered insights from a dozen resistance officials, analysts, and individuals familiar with the matter, unveiling previously undisclosed details of the operation’s planning.
Operation 1027, named after its late October commencement, has dealt decisive blows to the junta, marking victories across the nation for the alliance and other groups opposing the military rule that ousted Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian-led government in February 2021.
In the aftermath of the coup, the junta’s crackdown on protests triggered a grassroots rebellion, reigniting conflicts with ethnic armies. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, notorious for its brutality and scorched earth tactics, justified its harsh measures as necessary to combat what it labeled “terrorist” groups.
To counter the junta’s oppression, two members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, along with five other armed groups, established Brigade 611 early in 2022—an unprecedented collaboration that defied historical differences and priorities among various Myanmar factions. The formation, consisting of thousands of troops, showcased a level of cooperation that caught the attention of the US Institute of Peace, a Washington-based think-tank focused on conflict prevention and resolution.
Operation 1027 unfolded against a backdrop of rising Chinese discontent with the junta due to rampant criminal activities along the border. The junta’s inability to curb online scam centers that victimized thousands, mainly Chinese nationals, prompted Beijing’s frustration. By October, over 20,000 people, mostly Chinese, were held in compounds in northern Myanmar, engaging in fraudulent activities. The situation prompted Chinese officials to issue an ultimatum in September: either Myanmar eliminates the scam centers, or China would take matters into its own hands.
This discontent in Beijing fueled the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s offensive, according to analysts. The operation, launched near the border with China, involved capturing military outposts, towns, and border gates, with the rebels claiming significant territorial gains within a month. The formation of Brigade 611, comprising troops from diverse entities, including the powerful Arakan Army, signaled a new level of coordination among rebel forces.
Operation 1027 showcased the rebels’ adoption of modern tactics, including the use of drones. Brigade 611 troops, drilled in drone usage, leveraged this technology effectively during the offensive. Rebel ground troops, in coordination with drone strikes, proved to be a formidable combination, prompting military posts to be abandoned due to the overwhelming strength of resistance fighters.
The junta, with one of the largest militaries in Southeast Asia, remains determined to prevail despite setbacks. Richard Horsey, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, emphasized the military’s substantial resources and unwavering determination to persevere.
Anti-junta operations have now spread beyond northern Shan State to other parts of Myanmar, with battles in Sagaing and states near India and Bangladesh. The People’s Defence Forces (PDF), supported by the National Unity Government (NUG), back rebel groups in several areas, asserting control and diplomatically isolating the junta.
In the strategic city of Mandalay, the local PDF plays a crucial role in impeding military reinforcements to the frontline. The NUG sustains over 300 PDF units through funds raised via taxation, bond sales, and other means.
As the conflict intensifies, Chinese frustration continues to grow over the unabated operation of scam centers in northern Myanmar. Despite exerting influence over some rebel groups, particularly ethnically Chinese militias, China does not control them outright. The Chinese government’s displeasure with the junta’s inability to address the border crime issue, coupled with its broader interests, created conditions favorable to the rebels’ offensive.
In response to the conflict, Beijing has expressed support for talks facilitated by China between the junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance. However, the alliance remains resolute in its determination to defeat the “dictatorship.” A delicate balance of diplomatic efforts and military strategy is at play, with the outcome having far-reaching implications for Myanmar’s future and the geopolitical landscape of the region.
