17-11-2023 (BENGALURU) A Reuters poll of economists anticipates a significant boost to Thailand’s economy in the July-September quarter, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 2.4%, marking the fastest pace in a year. The data signals a turnaround driven by increased exports and a revival in tourism.
According to the median forecast of 16 economists surveyed between Nov. 10-16, Thailand’s economy is expected to rebound from the previous quarter’s 1.8% growth. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to have grown a seasonally-adjusted 1.2%, a substantial increase from the 0.2% recorded in the second quarter.
Exports, a pivotal factor in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, experienced a notable upswing, with a 1% rise in September following a year of contraction. This resurgence aligns with a potential economic recovery in China, a crucial trading partner for Thailand.
The tourism sector, which faced a sluggish start in the beginning of the year, has shown signs of recovery in recent months. This rebound has contributed to increased domestic consumption and boosted the service sector.
Eugene Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, highlighted the factors contributing to the positive outlook: “In Q3, export growth rebounded sharply mainly due to a strong performance in agriculture, automotive, and petroleum products. Looking forward, we are optimistic about the Thai economy. Tourism is expected to pick up in the coming quarters, coinciding with year-end holidays. A pickup in tourism will increase wages and retail trade, helping to lift growth.”
A separate Reuters poll indicates that Thailand’s growth is anticipated to average 3.0% and 3.6% for this year and the next, respectively. These projections surpass the Bank of Thailand’s estimates of 2.8% and 4.4%.
