20-10-2023 (JAKARTA) The looming Indonesian presidential and parliamentary elections, set for February 14 next year, are poised to revolve around a diverse range of pressing issues, experts suggest.
Topping the list of concerns for the Indonesian electorate is the state of the nation’s economy, a vital factor given the challenges posed by increased living costs, unemployment, and inflation. The upcoming leader will be scrutinized for their ability to navigate these economic headwinds through policies and schemes designed to alleviate their impact.
Connectivity within the vast Indonesian archipelago, comprising over 17,000 islands, stands as another critical issue. Improved infrastructure and connectivity are essential for driving economic growth, making it imperative for the incoming president to address this matter.
Incumbent President Joko Widodo, often referred to as Jokowi, has spearheaded numerous infrastructure projects during his tenure. Voters will be keen to learn whether these initiatives will continue under a new administration.
However, during the upcoming campaign season, which runs from November 28 to February 10, candidates may resort to identity politics, potentially stoking religious or racial divisions, a strategy that analysts fear could further polarize communities as seen in previous elections.
On October 19, two presidential hopefuls, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, along with their respective vice-candidate picks, officially registered their candidacies with the country’s general elections commission.
Presidential candidate front-runner, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, has yet to announce his running mate.
Indonesia’s elections take place against a backdrop of intense geopolitical rivalry in the region. Consequently, the strategy that the next leader devises for navigating the nation’s relationships with the United States, China, and other major global powers will significantly influence voters’ decisions.
THE ECONOMY
As a developing nation boasting a population of approximately 270 million, the economy remains a linchpin in the upcoming elections.
“The top three concerns of the voters will remain the same, which are (eradicating) poverty, job opportunity, and inflation,” said Mr. Kevin O’Rourke, an analyst with Jakarta-based political risk consulting firm Reformasi Information Services.
In 2020, Indonesia grappled with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, with its economy contracting by 2.07 percent. However, there was a rebound in 2021, with a growth rate of 3.69 percent. Last year, Indonesia registered a growth rate of 5.31 percent, the highest in almost a decade.
Despite this growth, as of March this year, there were still approximately 26 million people living in poverty in Indonesia, equating to a poverty rate of about 9 percent.
In recent weeks, Southeast Asia’s largest economy has witnessed a surge in rice prices, a consequence of harvest failures brought on by prolonged dry weather.
Jokowi, renowned as Mr. Widodo, has personally inspected markets across the country to ensure an adequate supply of rice to keep prices stable. Elevated rice prices can lead to higher inflation. In 2021, the inflation rate stood at 5.51 percent, a significant increase from the 1.87 percent recorded in 2020.
This year, inflation is expected to hover around 3 percent, but it could escalate further if the rice price situation does not improve. Rice, a dietary staple, along with the overall cost of living, will be central concerns for voters in the forthcoming elections.
According to the election commission, about 204.8 million Indonesians will be eligible to vote, making the upcoming elections the world’s most massive single-day election. More than half of these eligible voters are young citizens, emphasizing the significance of addressing unemployment as a campaign issue.
“When you talk to young voters, they will definitely ask about the chances of getting employed or even landing a job as a freelancer,” said Mr. Aditya Perdana, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.
Indonesia’s unemployment rate in the previous year was approximately 5.86 percent, with a prediction of around 5 to 5.7 percent for this year. President Jokowi anticipates similar figures for the following year.
INFRASTRUCTURE
A cornerstone of Indonesia’s economic growth strategy is the development of infrastructure aimed at connecting the vast archipelago and spurring development.
Jokowi has garnered praise for his efforts in constructing new highways, ports, and airports across the country, not only on the main island of Java. Under his leadership, Sulawesi’s first railway was inaugurated this year, along with Kalimantan’s first highway in 2019, and Papua’s longest bridge in the same year.
Nonetheless, some projects have fallen short of expectations, failing to deliver local benefits. Examples include the Kertajati International Airport in West Java and Palembang’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) in South Sumatra.
Arya Fernandes, a political analyst from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes the eighth incoming president of Indonesia will face challenges concerning infrastructure, financing, and their impact on the nation’s development.
“I think issues related to investment and infrastructure and their impact on Indonesia’s development will continue to be discussed in this election,” he stated.
JOKOWI’S POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES
With just a year left in office, President Jokowi remains highly popular in the world’s third-largest democracy. His approval rating has consistently hovered around 70 percent over the past nine years, a level of popularity envied by many world leaders.
According to polls, a presidential candidate’s proximity to Jokowi can significantly boost their popularity. Consequently, the continuation of Jokowi’s various policies and programs will be a central focus during the campaign.
One of Jokowi’s key initiatives is relocating the capital from Jakarta to a remote area in eastern Kalimantan, known as Nusantara. The viability and progress of this ambitious project will be subject to scrutiny.
While the capital is expected to move next year, the completion of Nusantara is scheduled for Indonesia’s centennial in 2045. Candidates will undoubtedly address how they plan to build it and attract investors.
Jokowi has also implemented a range of popular populist welfare schemes, which candidates may choose to continue or amend.
“The continuation of Widodo’s social welfare support funding has marked a big change, and which of the candidates will continue to implement it effectively will be an issue,” said Mr. O’Rourke from Reformasi Information Services.
Jokowi’s welfare schemes encompass cash handouts, particularly during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as social assistance specifically targeted at impoverished citizens.
IDENTITY POLITICS
Identity politics, specifically the religious affiliations of candidates and the endorsements they receive from religious leaders, is poised to play a significant role in the elections of the world’s most extensive Muslim-majority nation.
“Political identity will remain a buzz term during the campaigning, whether this is something the candidates will be using or what voters hope they won’t use,” noted Mr. Perdana.
In the 2019 presidential and legislative elections between Jokowi and current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, identity politics were prominently featured, even though both candidates were Muslims.
Similar dynamics unfolded during Jakarta’s gubernatorial election in 2017, pitting Christian incumbent Basuki Tjahaja Purnama against Anies Baswedan, who is now a presidential candidate.
Mr. Perdana highlighted that, before the official campaign for the upcoming election has commenced, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, one of the presidential candidates, appeared in a national television station’s call to prayer video, raising questions.
Despite criticism, the TV station, led by Hary Tanoesoedibjo, who heads the non-parliamentarian political party Perindo supporting Mr. Pranowo, asserted that there was nothing amiss since the presidential candidate is indeed Muslim. Hence, it claimed that Mr. Pranowo’s appearance in a call to prayer video was justified.
The General Election Supervisory Agency confirmed that the call to prayer video did not violate any laws, as official campaigning had yet to commence.
GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY
Jokowi is concluding his presidency with various high-profile international roles, including Indonesia’s chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the country’s presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) last year.
Despite persistent challenges in both groupings, Indonesia’s leadership has received widespread acclaim, given the intricate global conditions amid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the coup in Myanmar, and the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies.
Consequently, presidential candidates will address how Indonesia plans to continue implementing its non-aligned approach to global affairs. This will significantly influence investments, economic growth, and potentially Indonesia’s sovereignty, particularly in light of the encroachment of Chinese vessels in Indonesia’s Natuna.
“The primary issue would be the South China Sea, and the issue there is clearly sovereignty,” explained Mr. Wawan Mas’udi, dean of the University of Gadjah Mada’s social and politics faculty in Yogyakarta.
Indonesia’s North Natuna Sea lies on the edge of the South China Sea, and in recent years, Chinese fishing boats, coastguards, and warships have been sighted in these waters.
China stands as Indonesia’s largest trading partner, leading Jakarta to downplay the situation despite calls for more resolute action against such intrusions.
Mr. Mas’udi pointed out that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the crisis in Myanmar, and the struggle for Palestinian independence will likely also be subjects of discussion for the candidates.
“Foreign policy and Indonesia’s position amid the current geopolitical dynamics will remain important. These are topics the candidates must master to win votes,” concluded Mr. Mas’udi.
