3-9-2023 (BANGKOK) Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has successfully assembled his cabinet, which received royal endorsement on Saturday. However, lingering questions surround the suitability of his ministerial choices in addressing the monumental challenges facing Thailand.
With 11 political parties comprising the ruling coalition, the task of forming a cohesive team of experienced ministers and experts in their respective fields is a formidable one.
The list of royally-endorsed cabinet members closely mirrors the tentative list circulated among the media, albeit with the omission of one highly controversial figure. Notably, the ruling Pheu Thai Party does not exercise full control over economic affairs, indicating that the cabinet composition may not entirely align with the party’s preferences.
We reached out to academics, opposition politicians, and civil society leaders to gauge their opinions on the new cabinet’s alignment with the will of the people and its prospects for addressing the nation’s challenges. Additionally, experts were asked to predict the longevity of the government, which commands 314 House seats.
Challenges in Expertise
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, remarked that the composition of the Srettha cabinet reflects the Pheu Thai Party’s limited negotiating power and its indifference to criticism of its diminished influence. While the overall cabinet lineup may not be objectionable, it suggests that certain political factions continue to prioritize their immediate interests over the nation’s welfare.
Wanwichit expressed doubts regarding the capabilities of some ministers to effectively implement policies due to their lack of appropriate educational backgrounds, work experience, and a track record in their designated roles. Notable among these concerns are Pol Gen Permpoon Chidchob of the Bhumjaithai Party, who serves as the education minister, Pheu Thai’s Prasert Chantararuangthong, the digital economy and society minister, and Pheu Thai’s Phumtham Wechayachai, who assumes the role of commerce minister.
“It’s not about placing the right individuals in the correct positions; it’s about coalition-building, and it’s highly probable that coalition partners will clash in the future. This strategy may not yield long-term results,” Mr. Wanwichit opined.
Despite the Pheu Thai Party’s leadership at the Finance Ministry, with Mr. Srettha also serving as finance minister, key economic ministries such as the energy ministry and the agriculture and cooperatives ministry remain under the control of the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) and the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), respectively. Consequently, Pheu Thai does not possess full control over ministries responsible for economic affairs.
Furthermore, much of the work in these ministries will be undertaken by Mr. Srettha’s deputies, notably former finance permanent secretary Krisada Chinavicharana, who resigned from the public sector to assume his post.
PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow, now the agriculture and cooperatives minister, and Pol Gen Permpoon have been identified as potential weak links in the cabinet and will be closely monitored. Capt Thamanat is seen as an influential figure, while Pol Gen Permpoon, the brother of Bhumjaithai strongman Newin Chidchob, lacks the credentials to oversee the education ministry.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, contended that the cabinet’s composition appears to be driven solely by political considerations, rather than the qualifications of the appointed ministers. He questioned the criteria used to determine ministerial appointments, highlighting Thailand’s international acclaim for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as a contrasting example.
Tourism, a vital economic driver, has a new minister with no relevant work experience. Mr. Olarn also raised concerns about the allocation of the interior ministry to the Bhumjaithai Party, which lacks a comprehensive policy platform for local administration.
In contrast to his predecessor Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister Srettha appears to have had limited influence over the cabinet selection process, potentially limiting his control over the cabinet’s functioning.
Mr. Olarn suggested that Pheu Thai’s reliance on support from pro-military parties might necessitate concessions. However, he anticipated a cabinet reshuffle in the near future, especially if former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is released from jail, potentially altering the government’s economic policy direction.
Doubts Loom Over Government Performance
Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, expressed skepticism regarding the government’s prospects. He argued that the cabinet’s formation primarily aimed to appease coalition partners, raising concerns about the government’s ability to address economic challenges and expedite recovery.
All crucial economic portfolios have been allocated outside the Pheu Thai Party, with Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara, who was expected to lead the economic team, assuming the foreign minister post. Mr. Srettha faces the daunting task of amalgamating diverse policy platforms from coalition partners into unified government policies.
The exclusion of the Move Forward Party (MFP) from the coalition further complicates matters, as the party will closely monitor the government’s actions. Mr. Srettha and his coalition partners can expect little respite as they navigate the complex political landscape.
Mr. Sathit expressed concerns about the fractious nature of the Pheu Thai-led coalition, as its partners wield substantial negotiating power. Relying on their support in the House of Representatives entails risks, as failed negotiations could result in shifts in the House’s voting patterns.
The education ministry, in particular, is expected to face close scrutiny due to the Bhumjaithai Party’s lack of a robust education policy.
Awaiting Government Policy Implementation
MFP list-MP Natthawut Buaprathum expressed cautious optimism about the government’s stability but emphasized the importance of policy implementation. He highlighted Mr. Srettha’s focus on economic recovery, reflected in his dual role as finance minister, while urging the prime minister to consider input from ordinary citizens in addition to business leaders.
The government’s longevity, according to Natthawut, hinges on its ability to deliver on its promises and policies.
A Ship in Need of Repairs
Adul Keowboriboon, a representative of Black May victims’ families, likened the new cabinet to a damaged ship undergoing repairs for short-term use. He viewed several ministerial appointments as rewards for loyalty to the party’s “owner” and anticipated a cabinet reshuffle within three to four months to replace underperforming ministers with veterans, potentially in preparation for the next elections.
Mr. Adul reminded Prime Minister Srettha not to underestimate the power of the people, as the public will closely monitor the cabinet’s performance.
A Continuation of Policies
Nimitr Tian-udom, coordinator of the Welfare Watch Network, did not anticipate drastic changes, as one-third of the cabinet ministers served in the previous government. He viewed the cabinet’s composition as more of a rotation of positions than a substantive shift in policy.
Nimitr emphasized the importance of civil society and public independent agencies in scrutinizing government policies and their implementation, considering the coalition government’s alignment on certain policies while differing in the details.
As the cabinet takes shape, Thailand awaits the government’s actions and the extent to which it can deliver on its promises, cognizant
