25-8-2023 (KUALA LUMPUR) The upcoming by-elections in Johor on September 9 will serve as a test for Perikatan Nasional (PN) to determine if their recent gains, known as the “green wave,” will extend to Malaysia’s southern region. So far, the opposition pact has struggled to make progress in this area.
The nominations for the parliamentary seat in Pulai, located at the border with Singapore, and the state ward of Simpang Jeram near Muar town, will take place on Saturday. These seats were left vacant following the unfortunate passing of Domestic Trade and Costs of Living Minister Salahuddin Ayub, who suffered a brain hemorrhage on July 23.
Despite being labeled as “no-hopers” by some, PN, led by former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, secured one-third of Parliament’s 222 seats in the general election held in November. The coalition managed to break the uninterrupted rule of the northern state Perlis by Umno, receiving significant support from the Malay-Muslim majority.
In the early “midterms” on August 12, PN achieved unprecedented gains across all six states contested, although they were unable to wrest control of Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition in the west.
However, PN successfully surpassed the ruling alliance in the northern Malay belt of Kedah and Kelantan, winning all 32 state seats in Terengganu. This victory was largely driven by their largest coalition party, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), and the “green wave” refers to the party’s distinctive green color.
In the November 2022 general election, PN only managed to secure two out of 26 parliamentary seats in Johor, which is Muhyiddin’s home state, where he served as chief minister for nine years until 1995. This result followed a disappointing outcome in the state election 18 months prior, where the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) achieved a dominant victory by securing three out of 56 assembly seats.
In late 2021, PN also faced a setback in the neighboring state of Melaka, where they won only two out of 28 seats in the state legislature.
Nonetheless, PN’s election director, Sanusi Md Nor, expressed during the coalition’s campaign launch on Wednesday that the September 9 by-elections serve as a “gateway” for the recent wave of success to reach Johor and potentially extend all the way to Singapore.
“It starts here (at the by-elections) before we take over Johor in another two-and-a-half years,” he declared, referring to the next state election. Sanusi himself recently returned to power as the Kedah chief minister with an impressive 33-3 result in the northern state.
Pulai and Simpang Jeram both have significant Malay populations, with Malays being the largest ethnic community in these areas. For the mixed constituency of Pulai, Muhyiddin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia will field Zulkifli Jaafar, the deputy division chief. Malays constitute 44 percent of the electorate in this region. In Simpang Jeram, PAS central committee member Mazri Yahya will be fielded, as Malays make up 52 percent of the voters.
During the unveiling of PN’s candidates, Muhyiddin emphasized that the state election result on August 12 conveyed a “message in the form of a referendum by the people to reject the current federal administration for its failures.” He urged voters in Pulai and Simpang Jeram to give PN a chance to govern effectively.
Although neither of these by-elections will cause a loss of majority at the federal and state levels, PN continues to persuade ruling party legislators to withdraw their support for Prime Minister Anwar.
Parti Amanah Negara, on behalf of PH and the so-called unity government, will strive to defend the two seats. The unity government also includes BN as its main ally in Peninsular Malaysia. The late Datuk Seri Salahuddin served as Amanah’s deputy president.
Johor Amanah vice-chief Suhaizan Kayat will contest in Pulai, where he also serves as Amanah’s division chief. In Simpang Jeram, Nazri Abdul Rahman, the deputy chief of Amanah’s Bakri division, will be the party’s candidate.
Mr. Suhaizan, a former state assembly speaker, expressed confidence in victory if the voter turnout exceeds 70 percent. In south Johor, many Chinese voters, who largely support PH, reside and work in Singapore. A low turnout, as observed in the 2022 state elections, is typically attributed to this segment not returning to cast their ballots.
Nur Jazlan Mohamed, Pulai Umno chief, expects protest votes fromMalays due to current economic conditions and dissatisfaction over the party’s cooperation with PH. He stated, “Non-Malay voters… need to turn up to balance the dissatisfaction among Malay voters.”
While a victory for PN in both seats would be a significant boost for the opposition, analysts believe that even an increase in vote share would provide momentum for the pact. BowerGroupAsia’s political analyst Adib Zalkapli commented, “Just like at the August 12 state polls, if the Amanah candidates’ vote share is much less than the combined PH and BN tally garnered last year, it will excite PN’s grassroots.”
