4-8-2023 (BANGKOK) In a stunning turn of events, Thailand’s political future has taken a dangerous and uncertain trajectory, leaving the nation on the precipice of a potential crisis. More than two months after the general election, the outlook remains obscure, and recent developments have only added to the growing uncertainty.
The Move Forward Party (MFP), which emerged as the electoral victor, was abruptly ousted on Wednesday (Aug 2) from a coalition it had formed with the first runner-up, Pheu Thai, and six other political groups. This unexpected move, regarded by many as a betrayal, has not only deepened the rift between the so-called pro-democracy allies but also exposed Pheu Thai’s willingness to compromise with Thailand’s old establishment. It is an attempt to regain political power, which was lost nine years ago during a military coup.
The expulsion of MFP has further intensified the battle between the conservative regime and the liberal democratic force led by MFP, exacerbating Thailand’s political gridlock. Dr. Puangthong Pawakapan, an associate professor from the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University, warns, “We’re heading towards a crisis – another big crisis – and we don’t know how it will end.”
One of the key factors contributing to the uncertainty is the serious case faced by MFP concerning its proposed changes to Section 112 of the Thai Criminal Code, also known as the royal defamation law. A petition has been lodged with the Constitutional Court, questioning whether the party intends to overthrow Thailand’s constitutional monarchy. If found guilty, MFP could be dissolved, and its 151 Members of Parliament could face disqualification.
Political observers fear that such a scenario could trigger widespread street protests, adversely impacting political stability and the economy. Dr. Puangthong emphasizes the volatility of the situation, stating, “Everything is volatile, both the economy and the politics. They affect one another and could dampen foreign investors’ confidence in Thailand. Investments in the country may keep falling as investors move elsewhere.”
Amidst this turmoil, the question of who will become Thailand’s new leader and form the next government remains unanswered. Speculation abounds, contributing to the increasingly volatile political landscape.
Despite MFP’s electoral victory, the party failed to garner sufficient support in parliament due to opposition from parties aligned with the old ruling camp and military-appointed senators. Their united front effectively blocked MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s bid for the premiership. Pheu Thai’s decision to abandon MFP as a coalition ally has further complicated the process of forming the next government.
Adding to the uncertainty, the Constitutional Court is set to rule on August 16 regarding the parliamentary decision to block Mr. Pita’s renomination. Consequently, the Thai parliament has postponed the vote on the next prime minister.
Political analysts find these developments unsurprising, given MFP’s intention to challenge Thailand’s power structure and enact significant reforms. Dr. Puangthong explains, “It’s a fight against the regime – the old establishment – which comprises the monarchy, the military, the bureaucracy, and the judiciary. They view that Move Forward’s policies are aimed at dismantling their power structure. So, they don’t want Move Forward in power.”
MFP ran on a progressive platform, promising to reform the powerful military’s role in politics, address monopolies in business sectors, combat corruption, and amend the royal defamation law. These reformist ideals resonated with millions of Thai voters, resulting in MFP’s surprising electoral victory on May 14. Over 14 million voters expressed their support for the pro-democracy camp, primarily composed of MFP and Pheu Thai, out of a total of 52 million eligible voters.
However, their conservative rivals from the old ruling coalition have managed to maintain their grip on power, thanks to a constitution drafted by a military-appointed committee. Enacted in 2014 after a coup d’état led by incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the constitution grants significant power to the 250-member Senate, handpicked by the junta. This Senate jointly selects the prime minister with the House of Representatives until May 2024.
As the nation awaits the resolution of these political challenges, Thailand finds itself at a critical juncture. The outcome of the crisis remains uncertain, with the potential to shape the country’s future for years to come.
