20-7-2023 (BEIJING) Sri Lanka is the most likely country to host a Chinese naval base in the near future, according to a recent report by the AidData research project at William & Mary University in Virginia. The report suggests that the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka is the most probable location for a Chinese base, given the $2.19 billion already invested by China in the port. The report cites the strategic location of the port, Sri Lanka’s alignment with China in UNGA voting, and the popularity of China among elites and the population as reasons for this assessment.
The Chinese have been building port facilities around the world for years, with loans and grants worth nearly $30 billion from 2000-2021 to build or expand 78 ports in 46 countries. Despite this, Beijing has established just one overseas military facility, in the East African nation of Djibouti. The Pentagon has raised concern that China is considering more overseas military logistics facilities in locations including Thailand, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
The report lists Equatorial Guinea, Pakistan, and Cameroon as the next potential locations for Chinese naval bases over the next two to five years. The report also found a high concentration of Chinese port investments in Africa, ranking Bata, Equatorial Guinea, as the second most likely spot for a naval base, after Beijing committed $659 million to a port there.
Leaders in Colombo have said they will not allow the Hambantota port to host any foreign armed forces, but observers have long tried to understand the extent to which China uses its economic clout to advance its military ambitions. China has the world’s largest navy by number of warships, and its construction and engineering companies are busy building port facilities around the world.
The Chinese Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the AidData report. BlackSky, a commercial imagery company, said this week that recent photos showed a China-funded naval base in Cambodia has neared completion. The facility includes new piers able to support aircraft carriers. The United States also identified a military facility in Cambodia that it says will be China’s first overseas base in the Indo-Pacific region, something the government in Phnom Penh has repeatedly denied.
