20-7-2023 (JAKARTA) When the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) nominated Joko Widodo as its presidential candidate in 2013 and again in 2018, party chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri emphasised he would act as the party’s “task bearer”.
However, two-term President Widodo has never truly been a “PDI-P task bearer”.
Early on, there were rumours Widodo wanted his own party based on “volunteer” groups. While that never materialized, it’s clear he sees himself as a separate political actor trying to establish influence beyond his presidency.
This is reinforced by his attempts to establish a political dynasty, highlighted this week by TEMPO magazine’s front page story. During Widodo’s presidency, both his son and son-in-law won mayoral positions.
WIDODO AND MEGAWATI ON DIFFERENT WAVELENGTHS
Widodo needs his own political organisation. He now seems to be waging a psychological battle with Megawati over future PDI-P influence.
Tensions escalated after Widodo attended Megawati’s April 21 press conference nominating Ganjar Pranowo. At that event, both Megawati and Ganjar reiterated presidents remain “party task bearers”.
Soon it was clear Widodo wasn’t on the same wavelength as Megawati. Despite sitting at Ganjar’s nomination press conference, Widodo quickly made clear he wouldn’t automatically support Ganjar.
At a well-funded mass gathering, Widodo proclaimed it was too soon for his supporters to declare a candidate preference, saying he would “whisper in the ears of all parties” about who would be good. Meanwhile, his son indicated support for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, and his volunteer group also backed Prabowo.
“CAWE-CAWE” MANOEUVRES
In June, news agency ANTARA had to declare a purported story claiming Widodo would be Prabowo’s vice president a hoax. Papers also reported Prabowo describing being Widodo’s minister as “all smiles”.
These Widodo “cawe-cawe” (meddling) maneuvers drew criticism. Civil society, commentators, and ex-President Bambang Susilo Yudhoyono criticized Widodo for using his presidential position to interfere in nominations, asserting he should be above that as head of state.
On July 17, Widodo did a minor Cabinet reshuffle. The key appointment was Budi Arie Setiadi as Information and Communications Technology Minister. Budi Arie, formerly deputy transmigration minister, is chairman of pro-Widodo group Projo and has shown Prabowo support. This appointment of a Widodo loyalist will be seen by some in the PDI-P camp as another assertion of Widodo’s independence.
Even so, Widodo may still end up backing Ganjar Pranowo. Though not public, a clear bargaining process is happening. Widodo is messaging PDI-P that Megawati is no longer the automatic kingmaker. Connected to this is Widodo’s need for political support for his son and son-in-law.
Unable to build his own organization, Widodo clearly wants greater PDI-P influence, whether formally or by emerging as kingmaker.
Given this unique situation – an incumbent president negotiating with a former president and party chair – it’s unclear what exactly Widodo can demand. Some guarantee is likely the price for fully supporting Ganjar Pranowo. The threat of a Prabowo-Widodo challenge may be enough to concern Megawati over potential divisions. Will she compromise to reduce party tensions, or call Widodo’s bluff?
IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES
Widodo’s ideological orientation – deregulated free-market capitalism – differs radically from PDI-P’s, especially for members who consistently vote for government proposals.
In terms of materials used for party member political education, there is a “Marhaenist” stream within PDI-P that supports more regulated welfare-state capitalism minus socialism references. This stream is already subordinated to the pro-Widodo MP faction. It would face even more pressure if Widodo gained informal PDI-P influence to further his dynasty.
Allying with Prabowo provides less guarantee of a future political mechanism. If Megawati refuses any Widodo deal and calls his bluff, Widodo’s position vis-à-vis Prabowo may weaken.
Observers comment Widodo wants to cement his position by being seen as kingmaker. His weakness is having no formal organization after his presidency.
