10-7-2023 (SINGAPORE) Top diplomats from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are gathering in Jakarta from July 11 to 14 for a crucial foreign ministers’ meeting. This summit marks the midpoint of Indonesia’s chairmanship, which began in January.
The rotating ASEAN Chairmanship provides an opportunity for member states to address pressing regional issues and maintain the bloc’s relevance. Key topics on the agenda include advancing negotiations for a code of conduct in the South China Sea and managing tensions between major powers such as the United States and China.
Observers have emphasized the importance of Indonesia’s chairmanship objectives in ensuring ASEAN’s resilience and effectiveness. However, the regional grouping has faced criticism, particularly regarding its handling of the Myanmar crisis. Many hope that Indonesia will take a stronger stance and engage Myanmar’s junta more firmly as it assumes the challenging task of resolving the political turmoil in the country.
Unfortunately, progress has been limited, raising questions about ASEAN’s centrality in resolving the crisis.
Cyclone Mocha, which struck Myanmar’s western coastal cities in May, caused extensive destruction, including damage to homes and hospitals. The military government’s restrictions on humanitarian access and aid delivery have hampered recovery efforts. While ASEAN has provided some assistance, it has encountered obstacles in providing urgently needed support to the affected regions, as international agencies face restrictions imposed by the junta.
In contrast, during Cyclone Nargis in 2008, ASEAN successfully facilitated talks between the then-regime and the United Nations. The threat of applying the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle to protect civilians had pressured Myanmar to engage in discussions.
However, the current international focus on crises closer to home, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has reduced the impetus for Western nations to exert pressure on Myanmar. As a result, the prospects for swift action are limited.
Efforts to re-engage with Myanmar’s military have emerged among some ASEAN member states. Thailand, in particular, has planned informal talks with the Myanmar army. Experts view this as a positive step that may pave the way for further discussions involving various stakeholders inside and outside Myanmar.
Nonetheless, caution is necessary to ensure that such dialogue aligns with the Five-Point Consensus, a peace plan adopted by ASEAN and Myanmar’s military leaders in April 2021. The junta’s lack of commitment and progress in implementing the consensus has been a major challenge.
While ASEAN leaders have expressed their intention to engage with all stakeholders in Myanmar, they have maintained their position of excluding the junta from foreign ministers’ and leaders’ meetings. This has sparked international criticism, but some argue that ASEAN’s united front, despite differing opinions on Myanmar, demonstrates the bloc’s cohesion.
As ASEAN foreign ministers convene for this week’s summit, the spotlight will be on their ability to find common ground and effectively address the crisis unfolding in Myanmar.
